Muslim Vote Decides Illinois Gubernatorial Election

Now that the dust has settled on the 2010 midterm elections, political analysts and pundits alike are obsessing over the headlines while eschewing some of the less obvious but equally important revelations of this elections cycle.

First the obvious:

There is little doubt that this election was a referendum on the Democratic leadership of the last two years, just as the Democratic ascent to power two years ago was a referendum on the Republican leadership before it. The pendulum trajectory that our electoral culture seems to be chartering is somewhat problematic since it reinforces the notion that the out-of-power party should hold back, waiting and hoping for those in power to screw up. This breeds an attitude of divisiveness and ill-will, one that makes it hard for any important issue to move forward.

Two years ago, President Obama and the democrats were swept into power with a mandate handed to them by more than 50% of the voting populace. Obama received 7% more popular votes than McCain and a whopping 53% more electoral votes. Democrats swept House and Senate, earning a clear majority in each. And yet the Democrats failed to act boldly on their mandate by leveraging the dizzying enthusiasm in their base. Instead, they took compromising positions on key issues that dissipated enthusiasm within Democratic voters while failing to win over conservatives who grew in their bitterness and ire. Indeed, the enthusiasm shifted to the other side, the Tea Party organized with as much passion in 2010 as the Democratic base had done in 2008. Independent voters, forever the decisive wildcard, did what they do best and voted for change.

The results, the Republicans swept back to power claiming the House with a clear majority.

But all is not lost for the Democrats. The Democrats did manage to hold on to the Senate --and to the Tea Party's chagrin I am sure, they even managed to hold on to the "face of Obama's policies," Senate majority leader, Harry Reid (D-NV) who has been receiving the lion's share of conservative ire.

So now there is something of a power share leaving commentators wondering if Obama is going to be a Clinton or a Carter.

But, the headline aside, there was much more to how this election cycle panned out:

While the Tea Party's fever-pitched enthusiasm definitely helped the Republicans, the Tea Party is not all powerful. Several Tea Party candidates including Christine O'Donnell, the most talked about candidate of 2010, and anti-Islam mouthpiece Carl Paladino, flopped.

Despite the ugly rise in Islamophobia and anti-Muslim rhetoric nationwide, Both Muslim congressmen, Keith Ellison and Andre Carson were easily re-elected. Ellison who faced a viscous anti-Muslim campaign by the Tea Party, received one of the highest total number of votes in any congressional election in the country.

Ellison was not the only won to disappoint anti-diversity sentiment. Hansen Hashem Clarke won a US congressional seat. Hansen who is half Bangladeshi, half African-American, of Muslim and Catholic background, and married to a Korean born woman raised by Jews, quickly vowed to fight racial and religious profiling.

Locally in Illinois,  anti-immigrant congressman Mark Kirk managed to squeeze past Alexi Giannoulias in a tightly-contested election to claim Obama's old Senate seat. But the immigrant vote poured in large numbers and was largely organized, helping to determine many other local and national important elections including Reid, Boxer, Bennet, and Murray for the US Senate (Reid won 90% of the Latino vote, to Angle's 8%).

The Muslim vote, which largely caucuses with the immigrant vote, was in of itself a key decider in this election as well. It is safe to say that the Muslim vote was the single difference between Bill Brady losing and Pat Quinn given that only 19,000 votes separated the two (Brady has yet to concede but will). Had the Republicans and Bill Brady paid as much attention to Muslim issues (which include anti-bigotry but also things like healthcare and education) during the campaign as the Democrats  and Pat Quinn, they may have been celebrating Illinois' first Republican governor since George Ryan.

I will close with this take home lesson for future candidates: Muslims may be small in number but we are organizing. We are voting at much higher rates and as a bloc, we CAN decide important elections, and we WILL.